Crystal balls are often very murky, but that doesn’t stop people trying to make predictions about the future. As AI sweeps the world of software development and beyond, it is not obvious where all the trends lead, except to say they will probably land somewhere between vested tech optimism and disinvested post-tech visions.

Without making full and detailed predictions of the future, we can learn from previous software adoptions to reach a more balanced view of at least some of the trends, sorting real human behaviour from hype. Software runs the world. It has changed the fabric of economies and daily work. Spreadsheets, search and social media are ubiquitous. But their effects are not unconditional.

Spreadsheets did not end the need for accountants or accounts departments. A searchable web did not bring about a new enlightenment. Social media did not elevate the level of social discourse, eliminating extremism and division.

In this keynote we will look at current trends and the recent past to see what we can say about the near future and the effect of AI on society, work and software development.